Los Angeles Dodgers at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Freddie FreemanBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Clayton KershawPitching5.2 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Rockies- Brenton DoyleBatting2-3, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Chase DollanderPitching3.2 IP, 7 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Doyle homered to left (442 feet), Fernández scored.9–5
- 8Smith singled to left, Kennedy scored, Betts to second.9–3
- 6Doyle singled to right, Goodman scored, Beck to second.8–3
- 5Pages homered to left (409 feet).8–2
- 4Doyle hit sacrifice fly to left, Goodman scored.7–2
- 4Freeland doubled to center, Freeman scored.7–1
- 4Conforto hit sacrifice fly to center, Betts scored.6–1
- 3Call singled to left, Freeland scored.5–1
- 2Smith hit by pitch, Call scored, Betts to second, Rojas to third.4–1
- 2Rojas reached on bunt single to catcher, Pages scored, Call to second.3–1
- 1Goodman grounded out to third, Freeman scored.2–1
- 1Freeman homered to center (451 feet), Betts scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 66%
- ML LAD -225 / COL +185
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 68%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.5 pts
- LAD: Elo 67.9%, market 66.4%
- Fair odds
- LAD -197
- COL +197 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 6.5 – 5.0 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 11.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1547 | 1389 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | +15 | LAD: Clayton Kershaw: team allows 0.23 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · COL: Chase Dollander: team allows 0.76 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +130 Elo | LAD 67.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 67.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 67.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 66.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAD | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.2 | Runs scored | 3.829th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 6.430th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+0.7 | Margin | −2.630th of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–35th of 30 |
| 13th of 3029–31 | Road vs home | 21–4430th of 30 |
| 27th of 301495 | Opponent Elo | 15082nd of 30 |
| 2nd of 301547 | Elo rating | 138930th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAD |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 53–74 | 64–63 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 41–66 | 2–4 |
| Underdog | 12–8 | 62–59 |
| Overs–unders | 66–61 | 57–70 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAD 27–8 COL in their last 35 meetings; the forecast called 27 of 35.