Los Angeles Dodgers at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Alex CallBatting4-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Emmet SheehanPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 7 K
Rockies- Kyle KarrosBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Anthony MolinaPitching3.1 IP, 2 ER, 0 K
Scoring summary
- 9Smith singled to right, Rojas scored, Betts to third.11–4
- 7Smith singled to center, Ohtani scored, Betts to third.10–4
- 7Ohtani grounded into fielder's choice to first, Call scored, Freeland out at second.9–4
- 7Pages scored on a passed ball by Goodman, Call to third on passed ball by Goodman.8–4
- 7Pages scored on a passed ball by Goodman, Call to third on passed ball by Goodman.8–4
- 6Karros homered to left (381 feet), Bernabel scored.7–4
- 4Doyle homered to left center (439 feet), Tovar scored.7–2
- 3Kennedy reached on infield single to second, Call scored, Rojas to second.7–0
- 3Rojas singled to center, T. Hernández scored, Call to third.6–0
- 3Call singled to left, Freeman scored, T. Hernández to third.5–0
- 2Ohtani homered to right center (413 feet).4–0
- 2Call homered to left center (453 feet).3–0
- 1T. Hernández doubled to left, Freeman scored.2–0
- 1Freeman doubled to left, Smith scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 69%
- ML LAD -255 / COL +210
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 67%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.0 pts
- LAD: Elo 67.0%, market 69.0%
- Fair odds
- LAD -223
- COL +223 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 7.1 – 5.4 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 12.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1549 | 1387 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −10 | +12 | LAD: Emmet Sheehan: team allows 0.51 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · COL: Austin Gomber: team allows 0.58 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +123 Elo | LAD 67.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 68.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 68.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 69.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAD | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.1 | Runs scored | 3.829th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 6.430th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+0.7 | Margin | −2.630th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 14th of 3028–30 | Road vs home | 20–4330th of 30 |
| 25th of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 15072nd of 30 |
| 2nd of 301549 | Elo rating | 138730th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAD |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 52–73 | 63–62 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 40–65 | 2–4 |
| Underdog | 12–8 | 61–58 |
| Overs–unders | 65–60 | 56–69 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAD 26–7 COL in their last 33 meetings; the forecast called 26 of 33.