Los Angeles Dodgers at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Teoscar HernandezBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Shohei OhtaniPitching4.0 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
Rockies- Hunter GoodmanBatting3-5, 3 RBI
- Tanner GordonPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Rojas doubled to left, Freeland scored and Pages scored.3–8
- 8Goodman doubled to center, Tovar scored and Ritter scored.1–8
- 6Goodman singled to left, Arcia scored, Freeman to third.1–6
- 6T. Hernández homered to right center (400 feet).1–5
- 4Freeman singled to right, Arcia scored, Ritter to second.0–5
- 4Arcia reached on infield single to pitcher, Moniak scored, Doyle to third.0–4
- 4Bernabel doubled to left, Beck scored on throwing error by left fielder Conforto, Bernabel thrown out at third.0–3
- 2Arcia hit sacrifice fly to right, Moniak scored, Doyle to third.0–2
- 2Doyle doubled to left, Bernabel scored, Moniak to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 72%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.6% of 209 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 72%
- ML LAD -300 / COL +240
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 72%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 70%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.8 pts
- LAD: Elo 70.0%, market 71.8%
- Fair odds
- LAD -255
- COL +255 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 6.8 – 4.7 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 11.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1551 | 1385 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −8 | −6 | LAD: Shohei Ohtani: team allows 0.39 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · COL: Tanner Gordon: team allows 0.32 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +147 Elo | LAD 70.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 72.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 71.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 71.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAD | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.2 | Runs scored | 3.829th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 6.430th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+0.7 | Margin | −2.630th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 12th of 3029–30 | Road vs home | 20–4430th of 30 |
| 27th of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 15082nd of 30 |
| 2nd of 301551 | Elo rating | 138530th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAD |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 53–73 | 63–63 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 41–65 | 2–4 |
| Underdog | 12–8 | 61–59 |
| Overs–unders | 66–60 | 57–69 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAD 27–7 COL in their last 34 meetings; the forecast called 27 of 34.