Houston Astros at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Christian WalkerBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jason AlexanderPitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Orioles- Dylan BeaversBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Brandon YoungPitching5.1 IP, 7 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 6Beavers grounded into fielder's choice to first, Cowser scored, Mayo out at second, Basallo to third.7–2
- 3Diaz homered to left center (402 feet), Sánchez scored.7–1
- 3Sánchez singled to left, Walker scored.5–1
- 2Beavers homered to right (390 feet).4–1
- 2Correa singled to center, Dubón scored and Melton scored.4–0
- 1Walker homered to left (391 feet), Correa scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Orioles 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- BAL 53%
- ML HOU +105 / BAL -125
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.9 pts
- BAL: Elo 48.3%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- BAL -114
- HOU +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 4.1 – 4.4 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1511 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | −13 | HOU: Jason Alexander: team allows 0.27 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · BAL: Brandon Young: team allows 0.66 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +12 Elo | HOU 51.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 50.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 50.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| HOU | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.318th of 30 |
| 8th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.825th of 30 |
| 15th of 30+0.1 | Margin | −0.524th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 6th of 3031–31 | Road vs home | 30–3022nd of 30 |
| 22nd of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 150016th of 30 |
| 13th of 301511 | Elo rating | 150018th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 60–67 | 64–62 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 29–53 | 20–33 |
| Underdog | 31–14 | 44–29 |
| Overs–unders | 60–67 | 56–70 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 9–7 BAL in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 16.