Houston Astros at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Jeremy PenaBatting1-3
- Hunter BrownPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Tigers- Gleyber TorresBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Tarik SkubalPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 10 K
Scoring summary
- 10Torres walked, Pérez scored, Jones to second, Dingler to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Tigers 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- DET 59%
- ML HOU +135 / DET -160
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.3 pts
- DET: Elo 53.8%, market 59.1%
- Fair odds
- DET -145
- HOU +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 3.3 – 4.2 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1514 | 1520 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +12 | +15 | HOU: Hunter Brown: team allows 0.58 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · DET: Tarik Skubal: team allows 0.75 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +26 Elo | DET 53.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 62.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 61.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 59.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| HOU | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.88th of 30 |
| 8th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.19th of 30 |
| 15th of 30+0.1 | Margin | +0.75th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 4th of 3031–29 | Road vs home | 40–248th of 30 |
| 24th of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 149428th of 30 |
| 12th of 301514 | Elo rating | 15209th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 59–66 | 61–66 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 29–53 | 42–47 |
| Underdog | 30–13 | 19–19 |
| Overs–unders | 59–66 | 69–58 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 9–9 DET in their last 18 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 18.
- Aug 18HOU 0 @ DET 10Picked DET 58%Hit
- Apr 30DET 7 @ HOU 4Picked HOU 52%Miss
- Apr 29DET 4 @ HOU 6Picked HOU 51%Hit
- Apr 28DET 5 @ HOU 8Picked HOU 53%Hit
- Oct 2DET 5 @ HOU 2PlayoffsPicked HOU 62%Miss
- Oct 1DET 3 @ HOU 1PlayoffsPicked HOU 57%Miss
- Jun 16DET 1 @ HOU 4Picked HOU 60%Hit
- Jun 15DET 13 @ HOU 5Picked HOU 52%Miss