Detroit Tigers at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Riley GreeneBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Tarik SkubalPitching7.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Twins- Edouard JulienBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Bailey OberPitching5.1 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 11Torres hit sacrifice fly to right, Keith scored.4–3
- 6Keith singled to center, Báez scored.3–3
- 4Greene homered to right (392 feet), Carpenter scored.2–3
- 3Keaschall singled to left, Buxton scored.0–3
- 3Jeffers grounded out to third, Martin scored, Buxton to second.0–2
- 3Julien homered to right (410 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Tigers 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- DET 64%
- ML DET -205 / MIN +170
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −10.2 pts
- DET: Elo 54.3%, market 64.5%
- Fair odds
- DET -181
- MIN +181 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 4.4 – 3.1 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1513 | 1486 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +13 | −8 | DET: Tarik Skubal: team allows 0.65 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIN: Bailey Ober: team allows 0.39 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +30 Elo | DET 54.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 69.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 67.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 64.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| DET | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.223rd of 30 |
| 12th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.519th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+0.6 | Margin | −0.322nd of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3031–28 | Road vs home | 32–2516th of 30 |
| 28th of 301495 | Opponent Elo | 150114th of 30 |
| 11th of 301513 | Elo rating | 148623rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 58–64 | 60–60 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 40–45 | 30–37 |
| Underdog | 18–19 | 30–22 |
| Overs–unders | 67–55 | 55–65 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 19–16 MIN in their last 35 meetings; the forecast called 18 of 35.