Kansas City Royals at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Maikel GarciaBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Noah CameronPitching5.2 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Twins- Ryan JeffersBatting3-4
- Bailey OberPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9India singled to left, Frazier scored, Yastrzemski to second.2–0
- 3Garcia doubled to right, Isbel scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Royals 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- KC 52%
- ML KC -120 / MIN +100
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.5 pts
- KC: Elo 51.6%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- KC -109
- MIN +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 4.3 – 4.2 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1499 | 1488 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | −14 | KC: Noah Cameron: team allows 0.21 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · MIN: Bailey Ober: team allows 0.71 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | KC +11 Elo | KC 51.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 52.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 52.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | KC 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| KC | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 303.7 | Runs scored | 4.320th of 30 |
| 2nd of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.519th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.2 | Margin | −0.221st of 30 |
| 10th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–510th of 30 |
| 12th of 3029–31 | Road vs home | 31–2416th of 30 |
| 13th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 150014th of 30 |
| 18th of 301499 | Elo rating | 148822nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  KC |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 56–60 | 58–57 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 15–33 | 29–37 |
| Underdog | 41–27 | 29–19 |
| Overs–unders | 51–65 | 54–61 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
KC 14–20 MIN in their last 34 meetings; the forecast called 21 of 34.