Kansas City Royals at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Mike YastrzemskiBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Seth LugoPitching4.0 IP, 7 ER, 1 K
Twins- Kody ClemensBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Joe RyanPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Isbel singled to center, Rave scored.4–9
- 8Pasquantino singled to center, Isbel scored, Yastrzemski to second.3–9
- 6Lewis doubled to left, Jeffers scored, Clemens thrown out at home.2–9
- 6Jeffers singled to right, Roden scored, Wallner to third.2–8
- 6Witt Jr. homered to left (456 feet).2–7
- 4Clemens homered to right (379 feet), Jeffers scored.1–7
- 2Keaschall singled to center, Roden scored, Jeffers to second.1–5
- 2Jeffers singled to center, Gasper scored, Roden to second.1–4
- 1Lewis grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Clemens scored, Keaschall to second.1–3
- 1Keaschall singled to right, Jeffers scored, Clemens to third.1–2
- 1Wallner homered to center (434 feet).1–1
- 1Yastrzemski homered to right (418 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Twins 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 55%
- ML KC +115 / MIN -135
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.4 pts
- MIN: Elo 51.9%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- MIN -124
- KC +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 4.0 – 4.5 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1502 | 1486 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | +10 | KC: Seth Lugo: team allows 0.07 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIN: Joe Ryan: team allows 0.49 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +13 Elo | MIN 51.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 54.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 53.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| KC | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 303.7 | Runs scored | 4.221st of 30 |
| 3rd of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 4.519th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.1 | Margin | −0.321st of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 12th of 3029–30 | Road vs home | 30–2417th of 30 |
| 13th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 150014th of 30 |
| 18th of 301502 | Elo rating | 148623rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  KC |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 56–59 | 57–57 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 15–33 | 28–37 |
| Underdog | 41–26 | 29–19 |
| Overs–unders | 50–65 | 53–61 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
KC 14–19 MIN in their last 33 meetings; the forecast called 20 of 33.