Detroit Tigers at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Spencer TorkelsonBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Chris PaddackPitching5.2 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
White Sox- Colson MontgomeryBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Tyler AlexanderPitching4.1 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Torkelson homered to left (393 feet).2–1
- 5Montgomery homered to right (401 feet).1–1
- 2Dingler singled to right, Greene scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Tigers 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- DET 57%
- ML DET -150 / CHW +125
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.1 pts
- DET: Elo 58.5%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- DET -135
- CHW +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 4.6 – 3.9 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1514 | 1429 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | +2 | DET: Chris Paddack: team allows 0.23 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHW: Elvis Peguero (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | DET +60 Elo | DET 58.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 57.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 58.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| DET | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 3.827th of 30 |
| 14th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.521st of 30 |
| 7th of 30+0.6 | Margin | −0.626th of 30 |
| 10th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 7th of 3029–27 | Road vs home | 25–3427th of 30 |
| 26th of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 15044th of 30 |
| 12th of 301514 | Elo rating | 142929th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  CHW |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 58–61 | 68–50 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 40–42 | 0–4 |
| Underdog | 18–19 | 68–45 |
| Overs–unders | 66–53 | 58–60 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 23–10 CHW in their last 33 meetings; the forecast called 23 of 33.