Chicago White Sox at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Brooks BaldwinBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Shane SmithPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 8 K
Mariners- Randy ArozarenaBatting1-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Logan GilbertPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 11Canzone singled to right, Suárez scored, Garver to second.3–4
- 10Mastrobuoni hit sacrifice bunt. Mastrobuoni safe at first, Arozarena scored on throwing error by third baseman Rojas. Mastrobuoni to second.3–3
- 10Sosa scored, Mead to second, Montgomery to third on wild pitch by Bazardo.3–2
- 10Sosa scored on Bazardo wild pitch, Mead to second on wild pitch by Bazardo, Montgomery to third on wild pitch by Bazardo.3–2
- 7Baldwin homered to right center (361 feet).2–2
- 5M. Taylor homered to left (375 feet).1–2
- 3Arozarena homered to left (380 feet), Crawford scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 72%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.6% of 209 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 72%
- ML CHW +240 / SEA -300
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.6 pts
- SEA: Elo 66.2%, market 71.8%
- Fair odds
- SEA -255
- CHW +255 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 2.7 – 4.8 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1431 | 1520 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −9 | +2 | CHW: Shane Smith: team allows 0.45 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · SEA: Logan Gilbert: team allows 0.08 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +117 Elo | SEA 66.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 67.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 67.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 71.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHW | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 303.8 | Runs scored | 4.610th of 30 |
| 19th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.316th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−0.6 | Margin | +0.315th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 28th of 3018–40 | Road vs home | 33–2514th of 30 |
| 5th of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 149918th of 30 |
| 29th of 301431 | Elo rating | 152010th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHW |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 66–48 | 50–65 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 0–4 | 22–49 |
| Underdog | 66–43 | 28–16 |
| Overs–unders | 56–58 | 63–52 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHW 4–14 SEA in their last 18 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 18.