Chicago White Sox at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Mike TauchmanBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Tyler AlexanderPitching4.1 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Mariners- Julio RodriguezBatting1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- George KirbyPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 9M. Taylor homered to right center (387 feet).6–8
- 7Suárez hit sacrifice fly to center, Rodríguez scored.5–8
- 7Sosa homered to center (410 feet).5–7
- 7Tauchman homered to center (405 feet), M. Taylor scored.4–7
- 3Benintendi singled to right, Baldwin scored, Sosa to second.2–7
- 2Rodríguez homered to left center (434 feet), Arozarena scored and Raleigh scored.1–7
- 2Raleigh singled to right, Canzone scored and Crawford scored, Arozarena to third.1–4
- 2Mead singled to right, Robert Jr. scored.1–2
- 1Naylor homered to right (450 feet), Raleigh scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 70%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.6% of 209 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 70%
- ML CHW +220 / SEA -270
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.0 pts
- SEA: Elo 66.0%, market 70.0%
- Fair odds
- SEA -234
- CHW +234 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 2.8 – 4.7 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1432 | 1519 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | +9 | CHW: Jonathan Cannon: team allows 0.12 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SEA: George Kirby: team allows 0.45 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +116 Elo | SEA 66.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 68.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 67.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 70.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHW | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 303.8 | Runs scored | 4.610th of 30 |
| 19th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.316th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−0.6 | Margin | +0.215th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 28th of 3018–39 | Road vs home | 32–2515th of 30 |
| 5th of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 150017th of 30 |
| 29th of 301432 | Elo rating | 151910th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHW |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 66–47 | 49–65 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 0–4 | 21–49 |
| Underdog | 66–42 | 28–16 |
| Overs–unders | 55–58 | 62–52 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHW 4–13 SEA in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 17.