Chicago White Sox at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Lenyn SosaBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Davis MartinPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 5 K
Mariners- Josh NaylorBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Bryan WooPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 9Montgomery homered to right (411 feet).3–8
- 9Robert Jr. homered to right (357 feet).2–8
- 7Naylor homered to right (378 feet), Rodríguez scored.1–8
- 6Young grounded out to second, Polanco scored, Crawford to third.1–6
- 6Polanco singled to center, Naylor scored and Suárez scored.1–5
- 4Suárez homered to left (390 feet), Naylor scored.1–3
- 2Canzone homered to right center (405 feet).1–1
- 1Sosa homered to left center (392 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 69%
- ML CHW +205 / SEA -250
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.7 pts
- SEA: Elo 63.9%, market 68.5%
- Fair odds
- SEA -218
- CHW +218 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 2.9 – 4.6 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1434 | 1517 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | +1 | CHW: Davis Martin: team allows 0.11 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · SEA: Bryan Woo: team allows 0.04 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +99 Elo | SEA 63.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 68.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 68.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 68.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHW | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 303.8 | Runs scored | 4.511th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.316th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−0.6 | Margin | +0.215th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 28th of 3018–38 | Road vs home | 31–2516th of 30 |
| 5th of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 150014th of 30 |
| 29th of 301434 | Elo rating | 151712th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHW |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 66–46 | 48–65 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 0–4 | 20–49 |
| Underdog | 66–41 | 28–16 |
| Overs–unders | 54–58 | 61–52 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHW 4–12 SEA in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 16.