Cleveland Guardians at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Carlos SantanaBatting2-4, 4 RBI
- Tanner BibeePitching5.1 IP, 4 ER, 7 K
White Sox- Brooks BaldwinBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Mike VasilPitching3.2 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 7Amaya grounded out to second, Julks scored.9–5
- 6Teel grounded into fielder's choice to second, Montgomery scored on error, Mead safe at second on throwing error by second baseman Rocchio.9–4
- 6Mead singled to left, Amaya scored and Julks scored, Montgomery to third.9–3
- 4Santana walked, Schneemann scored, Manzardo to second, Ramírez to third.9–1
- 4Schneemann singled to center, Rocchio scored.8–1
- 4Kayfus scored on a balk, Rocchio to second on a balk.7–1
- 4Kayfus scored on a balk, Rocchio to second on a balk.7–1
- 3Baldwin homered to right center (380 feet).6–1
- 3Santana singled to right, Manzardo scored, Santana out stretching at second.6–0
- 1Kayfus doubled to right, Manzardo scored, Naylor scored and Santana scored.5–0
- 1Santana doubled to right, Schneemann scored and Ramírez scored, Manzardo to third.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 55%
- ML CLE -135 / CHW +115
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.0 pts
- CLE: Elo 57.2%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- CLE -124
- CHW +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 4.5 – 4.0 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1502 | 1431 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | +5 | CLE: Tanner Bibee: team allows 0.12 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHW: Aaron Civale: team allows 0.27 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +51 Elo | CLE 57.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 59.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 58.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CLE | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 3.827th of 30 |
| 11th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.419th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.2 | Margin | −0.626th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 7th of 3030–28 | Road vs home | 24–3227th of 30 |
| 25th of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 15044th of 30 |
| 17th of 301502 | Elo rating | 143129th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  CHW |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 56–58 | 67–48 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 18–32 | 0–4 |
| Underdog | 38–26 | 67–43 |
| Overs–unders | 53–61 | 56–59 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 19–14 CHW in their last 33 meetings; the forecast called 21 of 33.