Cleveland Guardians at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- CJ KayfusBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Joey CantilloPitching5.2 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
White Sox- Michael A. TaylorBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Sean BurkePitching3.1 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 6Kayfus homered to right (376 feet).3–1
- 4Rocchio doubled to center, Kayfus scored.2–1
- 2M. Taylor homered to left center (391 feet).1–1
- 1Manzardo singled to left, Kwan scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 55%
- ML CLE -135 / CHW +115
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.0 pts
- CLE: Elo 59.2%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- CLE -124
- CHW +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 4.5 – 4.0 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1504 | 1429 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | −4 | CLE: Joey Cantillo: team allows 0.15 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · CHW: Sean Burke: team allows 0.21 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +65 Elo | CLE 59.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 58.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 58.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CLE | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 3.827th of 30 |
| 12th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.520th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.2 | Margin | −0.626th of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3031–28 | Road vs home | 24–3327th of 30 |
| 26th of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 15044th of 30 |
| 16th of 301504 | Elo rating | 142929th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  CHW |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 57–58 | 67–49 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 19–32 | 0–4 |
| Underdog | 38–26 | 67–44 |
| Overs–unders | 54–61 | 57–59 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 20–14 CHW in their last 34 meetings; the forecast called 22 of 34.