Cleveland Guardians at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Kyle ManzardoBatting2-4, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Slade CecconiPitching3.0 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
White Sox- Lenyn SosaBatting2-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Davis MartinPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 7Manzardo homered to right (347 feet).4–6
- 6Sosa hit sacrifice fly to right, Rojas scored, Tauchman to third.3–6
- 6Fry doubled to left, Arias scored and Martínez scored, Rocchio to third.3–5
- 4Manzardo homered to right (408 feet).1–5
- 3Teel singled to right, Montgomery scored, Mead to third.0–5
- 3Mead singled to center, Robert Jr. scored, Mead to second, Montgomery to third.0–4
- 1Montgomery homered to right (452 feet).0–3
- 1Sosa homered to left (380 feet), Tauchman scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 55%
- ML CLE -135 / CHW +115
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.3 pts
- CLE: Elo 58.5%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- CLE -124
- CHW +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 4.5 – 4.0 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1505 | 1427 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | −1 | CLE: Slade Cecconi: team allows 0.08 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHW: Davis Martin: team allows 0.07 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +60 Elo | CLE 58.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 55.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CLE | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 3.827th of 30 |
| 11th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.521st of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.1 | Margin | −0.726th of 30 |
| 1st of 309–1 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 3rd of 3032–28 | Road vs home | 24–3427th of 30 |
| 28th of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 15054th of 30 |
| 15th of 301505 | Elo rating | 142729th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  CHW |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 58–58 | 67–50 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 20–32 | 0–4 |
| Underdog | 38–26 | 67–45 |
| Overs–unders | 54–62 | 57–60 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 21–14 CHW in their last 35 meetings; the forecast called 23 of 35.