Kansas City Royals at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Vinnie PasquantinoBatting1-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Ryan BergertPitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 8 K
Twins- Luke KeaschallBatting3-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jose UrenaPitching3.0 IP, 1 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 11Keaschall homered to right center (396 feet), Clemens scored.3–5
- 8Jeffers singled to left, Martin scored.3–3
- 7Pasquantino homered to right center (373 feet), Garcia scored.3–2
- 3Fitzgerald homered to right (376 feet), Gasper scored.1–2
- 1Frazier singled to right, Yastrzemski scored, Perez to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Twins 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 50%
- ML KC -110 / MIN -110
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.1 pts
- MIN: Elo 48.9%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- MIN -100
- KC -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 4.8 – 4.8 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1501 | 1487 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | −7 | KC: Ryan Bergert: team allows 0.21 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · MIN: Jose Urena: team allows 0.37 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | KC +8 Elo | KC 51.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 50.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 50.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| KC | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 303.7 | Runs scored | 4.221st of 30 |
| 2nd of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 4.419th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.1 | Margin | −0.222nd of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 10th of 3030–31 | Road vs home | 31–2516th of 30 |
| 13th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 150014th of 30 |
| 18th of 301501 | Elo rating | 148723rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  KC |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 57–60 | 58–58 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 16–33 | 29–37 |
| Underdog | 41–27 | 29–20 |
| Overs–unders | 51–66 | 54–62 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
KC 15–20 MIN in their last 35 meetings; the forecast called 22 of 35.