Detroit Tigers at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Colt KeithBatting2-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Jack FlahertyPitching4.1 IP, 5 ER, 6 K
White Sox- Edgar QueroBatting3-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Yoendrys GomezPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Keith homered to center (402 feet), Dingler scored and Rogers scored.6–9
- 8Quero singled to left, M. Taylor scored and Vargas scored.3–9
- 7Quero homered to right (383 feet).3–7
- 7Dingler homered to center (388 feet), Ibáñez scored.3–6
- 6Benintendi walked, Mead scored, Montgomery to second, Tauchman to third.1–6
- 5Teel walked, Montgomery scored, Vargas to second, Benintendi to third.1–5
- 5Robert Jr. singled to right, Tauchman scored, Montgomery to second.1–4
- 5Montgomery singled to right, Mead scored and Quero scored, Tauchman to third.1–3
- 5Mead reached on infield single to shortstop, Teel scored, Quero to second.1–1
- 4Pérez hit sacrifice fly to center, Carpenter scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Tigers 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- DET 61%
- ML DET -175 / CHW +145
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.6 pts
- DET: Elo 57.3%, market 60.9%
- Fair odds
- DET -156
- CHW +156 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 4.7 – 3.8 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1515 | 1429 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −15 | +2 | DET: Jack Flaherty: team allows 0.77 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHW: Yoendrys Gomez (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | DET +51 Elo | DET 57.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 61.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 60.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 60.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| DET | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 3.827th of 30 |
| 14th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.418th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+0.7 | Margin | −0.626th of 30 |
| 10th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3030–27 | Road vs home | 25–3527th of 30 |
| 26th of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 15044th of 30 |
| 12th of 301515 | Elo rating | 142929th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  CHW |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 58–62 | 69–50 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 40–43 | 0–4 |
| Underdog | 18–19 | 69–45 |
| Overs–unders | 66–54 | 58–61 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 24–10 CHW in their last 34 meetings; the forecast called 24 of 34.