Detroit Tigers at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Kerry CarpenterBatting2-4
- Troy MeltonPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
White Sox- Luis Robert Jr.Batting1-3
- Shane SmithPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 6Pérez hit sacrifice fly to center, Carpenter scored, Torkelson to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Tigers 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- DET 57%
- ML DET -145 / CHW +120
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.4 pts
- DET: Elo 60.9%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- DET -130
- CHW +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 4.5 – 4.0 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1513 | 1431 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | −7 | DET: Troy Melton: team allows 0.34 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · CHW: Shane Smith: team allows 0.33 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +77 Elo | DET 60.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 58.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 58.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| DET | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 3.927th of 30 |
| 14th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.519th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+0.6 | Margin | −0.625th of 30 |
| 10th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 5th of 3030–28 | Road vs home | 26–3527th of 30 |
| 27th of 301495 | Opponent Elo | 15043rd of 30 |
| 12th of 301513 | Elo rating | 143129th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  CHW |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 58–63 | 70–50 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 40–44 | 0–4 |
| Underdog | 18–19 | 70–45 |
| Overs–unders | 67–54 | 59–61 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 24–11 CHW in their last 35 meetings; the forecast called 24 of 35.