Minnesota Twins at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Byron BuxtonBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Zebby MatthewsPitching5.2 IP, 3 ER, 9 K
Yankees- Giancarlo StantonBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Will WarrenPitching6.2 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Chisholm Jr. homered to right center (375 feet).2–6
- 7Judge singled to left, Volpe scored, Grisham to second.2–5
- 7Grisham singled to right, McMahon scored, Volpe to third.2–4
- 7Larnach homered to right (395 feet).2–3
- 6Buxton homered to left center (396 feet).1–3
- 3Rice homered to right (415 feet).0–3
- 3Stanton homered to center (399 feet).0–2
- 1Bellinger homered to right center (375 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 62%
- ML MIN +155 / NYY -185
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.4 pts
- NYY: Elo 57.9%, market 62.3%
- Fair odds
- NYY -166
- MIN +166 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 3.7 – 4.8 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1489 | 1525 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | −6 | MIN: Zebby Matthews: team allows 0.36 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · NYY: Will Warren: team allows 0.30 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +56 Elo | NYY 57.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 57.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 57.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 62.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIN | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.2 | Runs scored | 5.13rd of 30 |
| 19th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.417th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.2 | Margin | +0.76th of 30 |
| 10th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 26th of 3024–36 | Road vs home | 35–2412th of 30 |
| 15th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 15045th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301489 | Elo rating | 15259th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 59–58 | 51–67 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 1–9 |
| Favorite | 30–37 | 40–60 |
| Underdog | 29–20 | 11–7 |
| Overs–unders | 54–63 | 55–63 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 4–9 NYY in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 13.