Houston Astros at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Jose AltuveBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Hunter BrownPitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Yankees- Ben RiceBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Cam SchlittlerPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 10Volpe singled to left, Chisholm Jr. scored.5–3
- 10Trammell homered to right center (383 feet), Diaz scored.5–2
- 10Correa singled to center, Altuve scored.3–2
- 6Judge singled to center, Wells scored, Rice to third.2–2
- 6Rice singled to right, McMahon scored, Wells to third.2–1
- 1Altuve homered to left (389 feet), Sánchez scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 52%
- ML HOU +100 / NYY -120
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.4 pts
- NYY: Elo 53.6%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- NYY -109
- HOU +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 3.7 – 3.8 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1523 | 1529 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | +9 | HOU: Hunter Brown: team allows 0.41 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYY: Cam Schlittler: team allows 0.46 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +25 Elo | NYY 53.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 51.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 51.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| HOU | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 5.13rd of 30 |
| 5th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.317th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.4 | Margin | +0.83rd of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 4th of 3029–27 | Road vs home | 34–2211th of 30 |
| 26th of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 15045th of 30 |
| 9th of 301523 | Elo rating | 15296th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 54–61 | 51–64 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 28–49 | 40–57 |
| Underdog | 26–12 | 11–7 |
| Overs–unders | 52–63 | 53–62 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 3–11 NYY in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 14.