Houston Astros at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Jose AltuveBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- AJ BlubaughPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Marlins- Jakob MarseeBatting2-2, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Cal QuantrillPitching4.1 IP, 7 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 7Wagaman homered to right center (399 feet).7–3
- 5Marsee homered to right center (409 feet).7–2
- 5Diaz homered to left center (405 feet), Correa scored and Walker scored.7–1
- 4Peña tripled to right, Dubón scored and Urías scored.4–1
- 2Marsee singled to left, Hernández scored, Wagaman to second.2–1
- 1Altuve homered to left (374 feet), Sánchez scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Marlins 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIA 50%
- ML HOU -110 / MIA -110
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 48%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.9 pts
- MIA: Elo 49.1%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- MIA -100
- HOU -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 4.3 – 4.3 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1522 | 1484 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | +10 | HOU: Steven Okert: team allows 0.19 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · MIA: Cal Quantrill: team allows 0.52 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +6 Elo | HOU 50.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 52.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 52.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIA 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| HOU | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.319th of 30 |
| 5th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.724th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.4 | Margin | −0.423rd of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 3rd of 3028–26 | Road vs home | 27–3026th of 30 |
| 28th of 301495 | Opponent Elo | 15039th of 30 |
| 8th of 301522 | Elo rating | 148423rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 53–60 | 64–47 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 28–49 | 3–17 |
| Underdog | 25–11 | 61–30 |
| Overs–unders | 50–63 | 52–59 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 6–1 MIA in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 7.