Houston Astros at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Yainer DiazBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Jason AlexanderPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Marlins- Javier SanojaBatting1-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Sandy AlcantaraPitching7.0 IP, 6 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Smith singled to right, Dubón scored.8–2
- 8Dubón doubled to left, Caratini scored.7–2
- 7Hill homered to left (380 feet).6–2
- 7Sanoja homered to left center (402 feet).6–1
- 7Peña doubled to left, Smith scored.6–0
- 4Diaz doubled to left, Caratini scored and Walker scored.5–0
- 4Walker grounded into fielder's choice to first, Altuve scored, Correa out at second.3–0
- 4Correa singled to left, Sánchez scored, Altuve to third.2–0
- 4Sánchez doubled to right, Peña scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Marlins 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIA 54%
- ML HOU +110 / MIA -130
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.9 pts
- MIA: Elo 47.3%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- MIA -119
- HOU +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 4.1 – 4.4 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1519 | 1487 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | −7 | HOU: Jason Alexander: team allows 0.18 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · MIA: Sandy Alcantara: team allows 0.36 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +18 Elo | HOU 52.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 52.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 51.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIA 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| HOU | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.318th of 30 |
| 4th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.724th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.3 | Margin | −0.423rd of 30 |
| 29th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 6th of 3027–26 | Road vs home | 27–2925th of 30 |
| 28th of 301495 | Opponent Elo | 15039th of 30 |
| 9th of 301519 | Elo rating | 148723rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 52–60 | 64–46 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 9–1 |
| Favorite | 28–49 | 3–16 |
| Underdog | 24–11 | 61–30 |
| Overs–unders | 49–63 | 51–59 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 5–1 MIA in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.