Houston Astros at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Christian WalkerBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Spencer ArrighettiPitching3.2 IP, 5 ER, 5 K
Marlins- Heriberto HernandezBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Janson JunkPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 6Caratini doubled to center, Walker scored.4–6
- 5Pauley homered to right center (394 feet).3–6
- 5Correa doubled to center, Dubón scored.3–5
- 3Hernández homered to left center (391 feet).2–5
- 2Ramírez hit sacrifice fly to right, Edwards scored.2–4
- 1Hernández reached on infield single to third, Hicks scored, Marsee to second, Lopez to third.2–3
- 1Lopez singled to center, Stowers scored, Hicks to second.2–2
- 1Hicks singled to left, Edwards scored, Stowers to second.2–1
- 1Walker homered to left center (417 feet), Sánchez scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Marlins 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIA 52%
- ML HOU +100 / MIA -120
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA 46%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.0 pts
- MIA: Elo 46.2%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- MIA -109
- HOU +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 4.2 – 4.3 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1524 | 1481 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | −7 | HOU: Spencer Arrighetti: team allows 0.27 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIA: Janson Junk: team allows 0.34 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +26 Elo | HOU 53.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 50.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 51.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIA 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| HOU | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.320th of 30 |
| 5th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.724th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.4 | Margin | −0.423rd of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3029–26 | Road vs home | 27–3126th of 30 |
| 26th of 301495 | Opponent Elo | 150310th of 30 |
| 8th of 301524 | Elo rating | 148124th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 54–60 | 64–48 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 28–49 | 3–18 |
| Underdog | 26–11 | 61–30 |
| Overs–unders | 51–63 | 53–59 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 7–1 MIA in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 8.