Houston Astros at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Jeremy PenaBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Framber ValdezPitching5.2 IP, 4 ER, 1 K
Yankees- Trent GrishamBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Luis GilPitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Grisham homered to right center (408 feet).4–5
- 8Walker walked, Sánchez scored, Correa to second, Altuve to third.4–4
- 8Altuve singled to left, Smith scored, Sánchez to second. Altuve to second, Sánchez safe at third on throwing error by left fielder Domínguez.3–4
- 5Rice grounded into double play, second to shortstop to first, Bellinger scored, Stanton out at second.2–4
- 5Stanton singled to center, Judge scored, Bellinger to third.2–3
- 4Correa singled to right, Sánchez scored, Correa to second.2–2
- 1Rice hit sacrifice fly to center, Judge scored, Bellinger to third.1–2
- 1Stanton walked, Goldschmidt scored, Bellinger to second, Judge to third.1–1
- 1Peña homered to left (404 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 50%
- ML HOU -110 / NYY -110
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.1 pts
- NYY: Elo 50.1%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- NYY -100
- HOU -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 4.3 – 4.3 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1524 | 1527 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +16 | −4 | HOU: Framber Valdez: team allows 0.79 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYY: Luis Gil: team allows 0.21 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +1 Elo | NYY 50.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 50.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 50.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| HOU | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 5.13rd of 30 |
| 5th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.317th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.4 | Margin | +0.75th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3030–27 | Road vs home | 34–2311th of 30 |
| 27th of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 15045th of 30 |
| 8th of 301524 | Elo rating | 15277th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 55–61 | 51–65 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 28–49 | 40–58 |
| Underdog | 27–12 | 11–7 |
| Overs–unders | 53–63 | 54–62 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 4–11 NYY in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 15.