Houston Astros at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Carlos CorreaBatting2-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jason AlexanderPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Yankees- Ben RiceBatting1-3
- Max FriedPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Dubón reached on infield single to shortstop, Walker scored, Urías to third.7–1
- 9Urías singled to left, Altuve scored.6–1
- 9Correa homered to left (397 feet).5–1
- 7McMahon hit sacrifice fly to left, Chisholm Jr. scored.4–1
- 5Smith doubled to right, Correa scored and Walker scored, Sánchez to third.4–0
- 3Walker doubled to center, Altuve scored.2–0
- 1Altuve homered to left (394 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 66%
- ML HOU +185 / NYY -225
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −13.1 pts
- NYY: Elo 53.3%, market 66.4%
- Fair odds
- NYY -197
- HOU +197 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 4.0 – 5.5 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1523 | 1528 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | +1 | HOU: Jason Alexander: team allows 0.02 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · NYY: Max Fried: team allows 0.03 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +23 Elo | NYY 53.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 65.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 63.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 66.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| HOU | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 5.13rd of 30 |
| 5th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.317th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.4 | Margin | +0.75th of 30 |
| 9th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 30 |
| 6th of 3030–28 | Road vs home | 35–2311th of 30 |
| 25th of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 15045th of 30 |
| 8th of 301523 | Elo rating | 15287th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 56–61 | 51–66 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 1–9 |
| Favorite | 28–49 | 40–59 |
| Underdog | 28–12 | 11–7 |
| Overs–unders | 54–63 | 55–62 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 4–12 NYY in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 16.