Minnesota Twins at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Austin MartinBatting1-4
- Thomas HatchPitching4.1 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
Yankees- Giancarlo StantonBatting4-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Carlos RodonPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Escarra grounded out to second, Chisholm Jr. scored.1–9
- 7Stanton singled to right, Judge scored and McMahon scored, Bellinger to third.1–8
- 7Bellinger walked, Goldschmidt scored, Judge to second, McMahon to third.1–6
- 5Stanton homered to center (447 feet).1–5
- 2Volpe homered to right center (386 feet), Chisholm Jr. scored and McMahon scored.1–4
- 1Judge homered to center (425 feet).1–1
- 1Lewis grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Martin scored, Jeffers out at second, Buxton to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 66%
- ML MIN +180 / NYY -215
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.8 pts
- NYY: Elo 57.8%, market 65.6%
- Fair odds
- NYY -191
- MIN +191 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 4.0 – 5.5 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1487 | 1527 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | 0 | MIN: Travis Adams: team allows 0.19 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · NYY: Carlos Rodon: team allows 0.02 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +55 Elo | NYY 57.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 63.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 62.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 65.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIN | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.2 | Runs scored | 5.13rd of 30 |
| 19th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.317th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.2 | Margin | +0.74th of 30 |
| 10th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 26th of 3024–37 | Road vs home | 36–2411th of 30 |
| 13th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 15045th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301487 | Elo rating | 15277th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 59–59 | 52–67 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 1–9 |
| Favorite | 30–37 | 41–60 |
| Underdog | 29–21 | 11–7 |
| Overs–unders | 54–64 | 55–64 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 4–10 NYY in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 14.