Detroit Tigers at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Kerry CarpenterBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Casey MizePitching6.1 IP, 4 ER, 10 K
Twins- Brooks LeeBatting1-4, 3 RBI
- Zebby MatthewsPitching4.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Jones singled to center, Sweeney scored.8–5
- 9McKinstry scored on error, Sweeney safe at first on throwing error by pitcher Topa, Sweeney safe at third on error.7–5
- 7Outman safe at first on error by pitcher Holton, Wallner scored, Lewis safe at third.6–5
- 7Lee grounded out to shortstop, Keaschall scored.6–4
- 7Sweeney scored on Funderburk wild pitch, Jones to third.6–3
- 7Sweeney scored on Funderburk wild pitch, Jones to third on wild pitch by Funderburk.6–3
- 7Jones doubled to left, Dingler scored, Sweeney to third.5–3
- 7Sweeney reached on infield single to shortstop, Pérez scored, Dingler to second.4–3
- 6Greene hit sacrifice fly to left, Sweeney scored.3–3
- 5Lewis hit sacrifice fly to left, Lee scored.2–3
- 5Lee tripled to right, Keaschall scored and Jeffers scored.2–2
- 3Carpenter homered to right center (387 feet).2–0
- 1Torkelson singled to center, Keith scored, Carpenter to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Twins 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 51%
- ML DET -105 / MIN -115
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 46%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.0 pts
- MIN: Elo 47.1%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- MIN -104
- DET +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 4.2 – 4.3 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1517 | 1482 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | −8 | DET: Casey Mize: team allows 0.22 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIN: Zebby Matthews: team allows 0.39 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +20 Elo | DET 52.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 54.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 54.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| DET | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.123rd of 30 |
| 8th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.521st of 30 |
| 5th of 30+0.7 | Margin | −0.322nd of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3033–28 | Road vs home | 32–2716th of 30 |
| 28th of 301494 | Opponent Elo | 150111th of 30 |
| 11th of 301517 | Elo rating | 148223rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 59–65 | 61–61 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 41–46 | 30–37 |
| Underdog | 18–19 | 31–23 |
| Overs–unders | 67–57 | 55–67 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 21–16 MIN in their last 37 meetings; the forecast called 20 of 37.