Detroit Tigers at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Dillon DinglerBatting2-4, 3 RBI
- Charlie MortonPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Twins- Luke KeaschallBatting1-2
- Jose UrenaPitching5.2 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 3Báez hit sacrifice fly to center, Pérez scored.7–0
- 3Dingler doubled to left, Torkelson scored, Pérez to third.6–0
- 1Báez doubled to left, Dingler scored, McKinstry thrown out at home.5–0
- 1McKinstry singled to right, Torkelson scored, Dingler to second.4–0
- 1Dingler singled to center, Carpenter scored and Torres scored, Torkelson to third.3–0
- 1Carpenter grounded into fielder's choice to second, Keith scored on error, Torres safe at second on fielding error by second baseman Keaschall.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Tigers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- DET 55%
- ML DET -135 / MIN +115
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.1 pts
- DET: Elo 51.1%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- DET -124
- MIN +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 5.0 – 4.5 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1514 | 1485 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | +1 | DET: Charlie Morton: team allows 0.13 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIN: Pierson Ohl: team allows 0.03 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +8 Elo | DET 51.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 54.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 53.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| DET | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.223rd of 30 |
| 10th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.420th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+0.6 | Margin | −0.322nd of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3032–28 | Road vs home | 32–2616th of 30 |
| 27th of 301494 | Opponent Elo | 150114th of 30 |
| 11th of 301514 | Elo rating | 148523rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 58–65 | 61–60 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 40–46 | 30–37 |
| Underdog | 18–19 | 31–22 |
| Overs–unders | 67–56 | 55–66 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 20–16 MIN in their last 36 meetings; the forecast called 19 of 36.