Baltimore Orioles at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Dylan CarlsonBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Cade PovichPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 10 K
Astros- Jose AltuveBatting1-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jason AlexanderPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 12Urías grounded into fielder's choice to third, Correa scored, Walker out at second, Altuve to third.4–5
- 8Holliday homered to right (381 feet), Carlson scored.4–4
- 7Altuve homered to center (394 feet).2–4
- 5Carlson homered to right (385 feet), Johnson scored.2–3
- 4Correa singled to right, Dubón scored, Melton to second, McCormick to third.0–3
- 4Melton singled to left, Smith scored, McCormick to second, Dubón to third.0–2
- 2Dubón singled to center, Smith scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 55%
- ML BAL +115 / HOU -135
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.3 pts
- HOU: Elo 56.5%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- HOU -124
- BAL +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 4.0 – 4.5 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1493 | 1521 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | +6 | BAL: Rico Garcia (no track record yet) · HOU: Jason Alexander: team allows 0.29 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +46 Elo | HOU 56.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 50.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 51.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BAL | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.317th of 30 |
| 26th of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 4.06th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−0.6 | Margin | +0.313th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3026–36 | Road vs home | 37–2612th of 30 |
| 16th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 149725th of 30 |
| 20th of 301493 | Elo rating | 152110th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BAL |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 60–62 | 59–63 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 20–33 | 29–51 |
| Underdog | 40–29 | 30–12 |
| Overs–unders | 53–69 | 56–66 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BAL 6–8 HOU in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 14.