Seattle Mariners at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Julio RodriguezBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Logan EvansPitching4.0 IP, 2 ER, 1 K
Orioles- Gunnar HendersonBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Tomoyuki SuganoPitching5.1 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Arozarena grounded into fielder's choice to second, Canzone scored, Moore out at second, Garver to third.3–5
- 6Rodríguez homered to right center (381 feet), Naylor scored.2–5
- 5Mountcastle hit sacrifice fly to left, Westburg scored, Henderson to third.0–5
- 5Henderson doubled to left, Holliday scored, Westburg to third.0–4
- 4J. Jackson singled to center, Johnson scored.0–3
- 4Mountcastle stole home, Johnson stole second.0–2
- 4Mountcastle stole home, Johnson stole second.0–2
- 4Westburg scored on Evans wild pitch, Mountcastle stole second, Mountcastle safe at third on fielding error by pitcher Evans.0–1
- 4Westburg scored on Evans wild pitch, Mountcastle stole second, Mountcastle safe at third on fielding error by pitcher Evans.0–1
- 4Westburg scored on Evans wild pitch, Mountcastle stole second, Mountcastle safe at third on fielding error by pitcher Evans.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 54%
- ML SEA -130 / BAL +110
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.3 pts
- SEA: Elo 49.9%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- SEA -119
- BAL +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 4.9 – 4.6 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1525 | 1487 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −10 | +10 | SEA: Logan Evans: team allows 0.51 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · BAL: Tomoyuki Sugano: team allows 0.50 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL 0 Elo | BAL 50.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 52.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 52.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SEA | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.221st of 30 |
| 15th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 5.027th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.3 | Margin | −0.727th of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 7th of 3030–29 | Road vs home | 29–3024th of 30 |
| 21st of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 149915th of 30 |
| 9th of 301525 | Elo rating | 148721st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 52–69 | 58–62 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 24–53 | 20–33 |
| Underdog | 28–16 | 38–29 |
| Overs–unders | 65–56 | 53–67 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 5–12 BAL in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 17.