Tampa Bay Rays at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Junior CamineroBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Drew RasmussenPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Mariners- Cal RaleighBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Luis CastilloPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Raleigh homered to right center (417 feet), Crawford scored and Young scored.2–3
- 6Caminero homered to left (356 feet).2–0
- 1B. Lowe homered to right center (391 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 53%
- ML TB +105 / SEA -125
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.5 pts
- SEA: Elo 52.7%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- SEA -114
- TB +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 3.1 – 3.4 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1508 | 1520 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +16 | +4 | TB: Drew Rasmussen: team allows 0.80 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SEA: Luis Castillo: team allows 0.22 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +19 Elo | SEA 52.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 51.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 51.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TB | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.610th of 30 |
| 10th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.316th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.4 | Margin | +0.315th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–35th of 30 |
| 16th of 3025–29 | Road vs home | 34–2514th of 30 |
| 6th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 149821st of 30 |
| 14th of 301508 | Elo rating | 152010th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 58–58 | 50–66 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 21–39 | 22–50 |
| Underdog | 37–19 | 28–16 |
| Overs–unders | 47–69 | 63–53 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 7–6 SEA in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 13.