Tampa Bay Rays at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Ha-Seong KimBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Adrian HouserPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Mariners- Cal RaleighBatting1-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Bryan WooPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 8Canzone singled to right, Polanco scored, Garver to second.3–6
- 7Naylor homered to right (360 feet).3–5
- 4Kim homered to left (366 feet).3–4
- 3Díaz grounded out to second, Simpson scored.2–4
- 2Kim doubled to left, J. Lowe scored.1–4
- 1Suárez singled to left, Rodríguez scored and Naylor scored.0–4
- 1Raleigh homered to right (376 feet), Arozarena scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 62%
- ML TB +150 / SEA -180
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.7 pts
- SEA: Elo 54.0%, market 61.6%
- Fair odds
- SEA -161
- TB +161 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 3.2 – 4.3 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1505 | 1523 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | +2 | TB: Adrian Houser: team allows 0.52 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SEA: Bryan Woo: team allows 0.10 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +28 Elo | SEA 54.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 60.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 59.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 61.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TB | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.610th of 30 |
| 10th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.316th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.4 | Margin | +0.313th of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 20th of 3025–31 | Road vs home | 36–2513th of 30 |
| 7th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 149820th of 30 |
| 15th of 301505 | Elo rating | 15239th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 59–59 | 51–67 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 21–39 | 23–51 |
| Underdog | 38–20 | 28–16 |
| Overs–unders | 48–70 | 64–54 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 7–8 SEA in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 15.