Tampa Bay Rays at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Junior CamineroBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Joe BoylePitching3.1 IP, 6 ER, 5 K
Mariners- Julio RodriguezBatting2-5, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Logan EvansPitching5.1 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 6Young scored, Arozarena to second on wild pitch by Englert.4–7
- 6Young scored on Englert wild pitch, Arozarena to second on wild pitch by Englert.4–7
- 6Caminero homered to center (419 feet), Díaz scored and J. Lowe scored.4–6
- 3Rodríguez homered to left (349 feet).1–6
- 3Raleigh homered to left center (397 feet), Young scored and Arozarena scored.1–5
- 1Rodríguez homered to center (436 feet), Arozarena scored.1–2
- 1B. Lowe homered to left (347 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 57%
- ML TB +120 / SEA -145
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.0 pts
- SEA: Elo 54.6%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- SEA -130
- TB +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 3.5 – 4.0 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1507 | 1521 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −11 | −12 | TB: Joe Boyle: team allows 0.56 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · SEA: Logan Evans: team allows 0.59 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +32 Elo | SEA 54.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 52.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 53.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TB | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.610th of 30 |
| 10th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.316th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.4 | Margin | +0.314th of 30 |
| 26th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 20th of 3025–30 | Road vs home | 35–2513th of 30 |
| 6th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 149820th of 30 |
| 14th of 301507 | Elo rating | 15219th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 59–58 | 50–67 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 21–39 | 22–51 |
| Underdog | 38–19 | 28–16 |
| Overs–unders | 47–70 | 63–54 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 7–7 SEA in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 14.