Seattle Mariners at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Josh NaylorBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- George KirbyPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Orioles- Jackson HollidayBatting1-4
- Dean KremerPitching8.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 1Naylor singled to right, Arozarena scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 58%
- ML SEA -155 / BAL +130
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.6 pts
- SEA: Elo 52.7%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- SEA -140
- BAL +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 5.1 – 4.4 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1525 | 1487 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | +6 | SEA: George Kirby: team allows 0.27 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BAL: Dean Kremer: team allows 0.31 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +19 Elo | SEA 52.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 58.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 57.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SEA | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.318th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 5.027th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.3 | Margin | −0.727th of 30 |
| 2nd of 309–1 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 8th of 3029–28 | Road vs home | 28–2925th of 30 |
| 20th of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 149918th of 30 |
| 9th of 301525 | Elo rating | 148722nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 52–67 | 56–62 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 24–51 | 20–33 |
| Underdog | 28–16 | 36–29 |
| Overs–unders | 65–54 | 53–65 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 4–11 BAL in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 15.