Athletics at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Willie MacIverBatting1-3, 2 RBI
- Luis MoralesPitching2.2 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Orioles- Jordan WestburgBatting1-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Cade PovichPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9MacIver doubled to left, Butler scored and Hernaiz scored.3–2
- 7Mayo doubled to center, A. Jackson scored.1–2
- 6Thomas singled to left, Rooker scored.1–1
- 5Westburg homered to left (417 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Orioles 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- BAL 53%
- ML ATH +105 / BAL -125
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.5 pts
- BAL: Elo 51.7%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- BAL -114
- ATH +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATH 4.6 – 4.9 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATH | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1465 | 1488 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | −25 | ATH: Luis Morales (no track record yet) · BAL: Cade Povich: team allows 1.25 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +12 Elo | BAL 51.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 54.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 54.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATH | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.319th of 30 |
| 28th of 305.3 | Runs allowed | 5.027th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−0.8 | Margin | −0.727th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 30 |
| 14th of 3029–33 | Road vs home | 28–2821st of 30 |
| 11th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 149917th of 30 |
| 26th of 301465 | Elo rating | 148823rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATH |  BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 63–56 | 56–61 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 12–17 | 20–32 |
| Underdog | 51–39 | 36–29 |
| Overs–unders | 63–56 | 53–64 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATH 7–11 BAL in their last 18 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 18.
