Athletics at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Tyler SoderstromBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- J.T. GinnPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 9 K
Orioles- Adley RutschmanBatting1-2, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Tomoyuki SuganoPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Soderstrom singled to left, Kurtz scored.2–3
- 5Urías hit sacrifice fly to center, Butler scored.1–3
- 1Mountcastle homered to center (433 feet).0–3
- 1Rutschman homered to right center (377 feet), Henderson scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Orioles 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- BAL 53%
- ML ATH +105 / BAL -125
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.7 pts
- BAL: Elo 57.0%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- BAL -114
- ATH +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATH 4.6 – 4.9 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATH | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1462 | 1491 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | +6 | ATH: J.T. Ginn: team allows 0.23 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · BAL: Tomoyuki Sugano: team allows 0.30 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +49 Elo | BAL 57.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 51.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 51.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATH | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.317th of 30 |
| 28th of 305.3 | Runs allowed | 5.027th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−0.9 | Margin | −0.727th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 13th of 3028–32 | Road vs home | 27–2721st of 30 |
| 8th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 150016th of 30 |
| 26th of 301462 | Elo rating | 149121st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATH |  BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 61–56 | 56–59 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 12–17 | 20–30 |
| Underdog | 49–39 | 36–29 |
| Overs–unders | 62–55 | 52–63 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATH 6–10 BAL in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 16.
