Seattle Mariners at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Josh NaylorBatting1-4, 2 RBI
- Logan GilbertPitching6.1 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Orioles- Ryan MountcastleBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Trevor RogersPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Holliday doubled to right, Carlson scored.3–4
- 9Canzone hit sacrifice fly to center, Suárez scored.3–3
- 9Naylor grounded out to second, Rodríguez scored, Suárez to third.2–3
- 7J. Jackson tripled to right, J. Jackson scored on throwing error by first baseman Naylor and Mayo scored.1–3
- 7Mountcastle homered to center (394 feet).1–1
- 7Naylor singled to right, Rodríguez scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 57%
- ML SEA -150 / BAL +125
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.8 pts
- SEA: Elo 50.6%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- SEA -135
- BAL +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 4.6 – 3.9 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1526 | 1486 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | +20 | SEA: Logan Gilbert: team allows 0.14 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BAL: Trevor Rogers: team allows 1.01 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +4 Elo | SEA 50.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 60.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 58.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SEA | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.220th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 5.027th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.3 | Margin | −0.727th of 30 |
| 2nd of 309–1 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 5th of 3030–28 | Road vs home | 28–3025th of 30 |
| 20th of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 149915th of 30 |
| 8th of 301526 | Elo rating | 148622nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 52–68 | 57–62 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 24–52 | 20–33 |
| Underdog | 28–16 | 37–29 |
| Overs–unders | 65–55 | 53–66 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 5–11 BAL in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 16.