Boston Red Sox at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Roman AnthonyBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Garrett CrochetPitching4.0 IP, 5 ER, 5 K
Astros- Ramon UriasBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Cristian JavierPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 7Anthony homered to right center (398 feet), Wong scored.6–7
- 7Yoshida doubled to right, Rafaela scored.4–7
- 7Toro homered to right center (398 feet).3–7
- 5Urías homered to left (401 feet), Walker scored.2–7
- 4McCormick homered to left center (393 feet), Urías scored.2–5
- 3Walker doubled to center, Correa scored and Peña scored.2–3
- 3Correa singled to right, Smith scored, Peña to second.2–1
- 1Bregman homered to left (350 feet), Anthony scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 60%
- ML BOS -165 / HOU +140
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.7 pts
- BOS: Elo 51.2%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- BOS -149
- HOU +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 4.2 – 3.3 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1527 | 1526 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +19 | −7 | BOS: Garrett Crochet: team allows 0.93 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · HOU: Cristian Javier: team allows 0.35 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +8 Elo | BOS 51.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 60.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 59.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BOS | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 4.315th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 3.95th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+0.7 | Margin | +0.59th of 30 |
| 5th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 18th of 3026–32 | Road vs home | 35–2413th of 30 |
| 14th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 149624th of 30 |
| 6th of 301527 | Elo rating | 15268th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 65–54 | 57–61 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 30–37 | 28–49 |
| Underdog | 35–17 | 29–12 |
| Overs–unders | 60–59 | 54–64 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 7–9 HOU in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 16.