Boston Red Sox at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Carlos NarvaezBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Dustin MayPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Astros- Jeremy PenaBatting3-5
- Spencer ArrighettiPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Urías grounded into fielder's choice to third, Diaz scored on throwing error by second baseman Rafaela, Trammell out at second.14–1
- 9Yoshida grounded into fielder's choice to pitcher, Bregman scored, Story out at second, Duran to third.14–0
- 9Story singled to left, Anthony scored, Duran to second, Bregman to third.13–0
- 8Abreu doubled to center, Toro scored and Story scored.12–0
- 8Toro singled to left, Duran scored, Story to second.10–0
- 8Anthony homered to center (428 feet).9–0
- 7Abreu doubled to center, Story scored, Yoshida to third.8–0
- 6Bregman homered to right (338 feet), Anthony scored.7–0
- 6Narváez homered to left (383 feet), Yoshida scored and Rafaela scored.5–0
- 3Yoshida hit sacrifice fly to center, Anthony scored, Bregman to third.2–0
- 3Story hit by pitch, Narváez scored, Bregman to second, Anthony to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 50%
- ML BOS -110 / HOU -110
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.1 pts
- HOU: Elo 53.1%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- HOU -100
- BOS -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 4.3 – 4.3 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1526 | 1528 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −10 | −8 | BOS: Dustin May: team allows 0.51 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · HOU: Spencer Arrighetti: team allows 0.42 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +21 Elo | HOU 53.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 50.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 51.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BOS | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 4.416th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 3.95th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+0.7 | Margin | +0.59th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–510th of 30 |
| 20th of 3026–33 | Road vs home | 36–2411th of 30 |
| 13th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 149723rd of 30 |
| 8th of 301526 | Elo rating | 15287th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 65–55 | 58–61 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 30–38 | 28–49 |
| Underdog | 35–17 | 30–12 |
| Overs–unders | 61–59 | 55–64 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 7–10 HOU in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 17.