Boston Red Sox at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Romy GonzalezBatting2-4
- Walker BuehlerPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Astros- Yainer DiazBatting2-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Hunter BrownPitching6.2 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 6Diaz homered to left center (415 feet), Caratini scored.1–4
- 2Rafaela singled to center, Story scored, Abreu to third.1–2
- 1Diaz singled to left, Altuve scored, Caratini to second.0–2
- 1Peña homered to left (358 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 58%
- ML BOS +130 / HOU -155
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.8 pts
- HOU: Elo 52.5%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- HOU -140
- BOS +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 3.4 – 4.1 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1530 | 1523 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | +8 | BOS: Walker Buehler: team allows 0.09 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · HOU: Hunter Brown: team allows 0.40 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +17 Elo | HOU 52.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 57.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 56.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BOS | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.1 | Runs scored | 4.316th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.06th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+0.8 | Margin | +0.412th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 18th of 3027–33 | Road vs home | 36–2512th of 30 |
| 14th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 149723rd of 30 |
| 6th of 301530 | Elo rating | 15239th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 66–55 | 58–62 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 30–38 | 28–50 |
| Underdog | 36–17 | 30–12 |
| Overs–unders | 62–59 | 56–64 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 9–1 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 8–10 HOU in their last 18 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 18.