Baltimore Orioles at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Dylan CarlsonBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Brandon YoungPitching8.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Astros- Ramon UriasBatting1-3
- Framber ValdezPitching6.2 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Carlson homered to left (330 feet), Allen scored.7–0
- 8J. Jackson singled to center, Mountcastle scored.5–0
- 7Henderson singled to left, Westburg scored.4–0
- 5Henderson hit sacrifice fly to left, Johnson scored on error and Holliday scored on throwing error by left fielder Sánchez, Westburg safe at second on error.3–0
- 4Mayo homered to left (353 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 65%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 65%
- ML BAL +175 / HOU -210
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.7 pts
- HOU: Elo 62.4%, market 65.1%
- Fair odds
- HOU -186
- BAL +186 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 3.1 – 4.4 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1489 | 1525 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −21 | +12 | BAL: Brandon Young: team allows 1.06 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · HOU: Framber Valdez: team allows 0.61 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +88 Elo | HOU 62.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 63.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 63.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 65.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BAL | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.316th of 30 |
| 26th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 4.06th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−0.7 | Margin | +0.412th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 24th of 3025–36 | Road vs home | 37–2510th of 30 |
| 16th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 149725th of 30 |
| 20th of 301489 | Elo rating | 15258th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BAL |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 59–62 | 59–62 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 20–33 | 29–50 |
| Underdog | 39–29 | 30–12 |
| Overs–unders | 53–68 | 56–65 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BAL 5–8 HOU in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 13.