Detroit Tigers at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Kerry CarpenterBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Chris PaddackPitching5.2 IP, 8 ER, 4 K
Twins- Brooks LeeBatting1-3, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Thomas HatchPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 4Keaschall grounded into fielder's choice to third, Buxton scored on throwing error by second baseman McKinstry, Larnach out at second.1–8
- 3Lee homered to right (373 feet), Keaschall scored, Jeffers scored and Lewis scored.1–7
- 3Clemens grounded out to second, Larnach scored, Keaschall to second.1–3
- 3Buxton homered to left (388 feet).1–2
- 3Carpenter singled to right, Keith scored.1–1
- 2Lewis homered to left (376 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Tigers 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- DET 53%
- ML DET -125 / MIN +105
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.9 pts
- DET: Elo 51.3%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- DET -114
- MIN +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 4.9 – 4.6 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1519 | 1480 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | +13 | DET: Chris Paddack: team allows 0.05 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIN: Thomas Hatch: team allows 0.64 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +9 Elo | DET 51.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 50.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 50.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| DET | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.123rd of 30 |
| 10th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.521st of 30 |
| 6th of 30+0.7 | Margin | −0.422nd of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3034–28 | Road vs home | 32–2817th of 30 |
| 28th of 301493 | Opponent Elo | 150211th of 30 |
| 11th of 301519 | Elo rating | 148023rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 60–65 | 61–62 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 41–46 | 30–38 |
| Underdog | 19–19 | 31–23 |
| Overs–unders | 68–57 | 56–67 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 22–16 MIN in their last 38 meetings; the forecast called 20 of 38.