Baltimore Orioles at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Jordan WestburgBatting4-5, 1 HR, 5 RBI
- Dean KremerPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Astros- Yainer DiazBatting2-4
- Cristian JavierPitching3.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 8Basallo singled to center, Henderson scored and Westburg scored, Rutschman to third.12–0
- 8Rutschman singled to right, Holliday scored, Henderson to second, Westburg to third.10–0
- 8Henderson walked, Beavers scored, Westburg to second, Holliday to third.9–0
- 8Westburg singled to left, Mayo scored, Holliday to second, Beavers to third.8–0
- 7Rutschman grounded out to first, Holliday scored, Henderson to second, Westburg to third.7–0
- 7Westburg singled to left, J. Jackson scored, Holliday to second.6–0
- 5Westburg homered to right center (385 feet), J. Jackson scored and Holliday scored.5–0
- 5Holliday singled to left, Beavers scored, J. Jackson to second.2–0
- 3Henderson hit sacrifice fly to right, J. Jackson scored, Holliday to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 53%
- ML BAL +105 / HOU -125
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.0 pts
- HOU: Elo 54.2%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- HOU -114
- BAL +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 4.1 – 4.4 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1492 | 1522 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | −10 | BAL: Dean Kremer: team allows 0.44 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · HOU: Cristian Javier: team allows 0.50 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +29 Elo | HOU 54.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 54.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 54.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BAL | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.319th of 30 |
| 26th of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 4.06th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−0.7 | Margin | +0.313th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 24th of 3026–37 | Road vs home | 38–2612th of 30 |
| 17th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 149725th of 30 |
| 20th of 301492 | Elo rating | 152210th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BAL |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 61–62 | 59–64 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 20–33 | 29–52 |
| Underdog | 41–29 | 30–12 |
| Overs–unders | 54–69 | 57–66 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BAL 6–9 HOU in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 15.