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Houston Astros at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast

FinalSpace City Home Network, FanDuel SN DET, MLBN

Away

Astros

69-56

0–10

at

Home

Tigers

74-53

HOU 42%DET 58%

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Comerica Park · Space City Home Network, FanDuel SN DET, MLBN

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.

DET75%50%75%HOUStart1234567Final

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Astros
  • Christian WalkerBatting2-3
  • Spencer ArrighettiPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 5 K
Tigers
  • Colt KeithBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
  • Jack FlahertyPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 9 K

Scoring summary

  • 7Keith homered to right (374 feet).0–10
  • 7Sweeney homered to right (402 feet), Torkelson scored and Dingler scored.0–9
  • 6Keith hit sacrifice fly to center, Sweeney scored.0–6
  • 5Greene homered to right center (405 feet), Carpenter scored.0–5
  • 5Carpenter tripled to right, Keith scored and Torres scored.0–3
  • 4Pérez homered to right center (385 feet).0–1

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Tigers 58%

LeanHit
HOU 42%DET 58%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.

Market
DET 58%
ML HOU +130 / DET -155
Pre-line forecast
DET 56%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
DET 53%
Ratings vs. market
−5.7 pts
DET: Elo 52.6%, market 58.3%
Fair odds
DET -140
HOU +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
HOU 3.9 – 4.6 DET
Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorHOUDETWhy
Team rating15181516Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+18Worth 18 Elo in MLB
Starting pitchers−21−19HOU: Spencer Arrighetti: team allows 1.05 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · DET: Jack Flaherty: team allows 0.96 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsDET +18 EloDET 52.6%
Market-implied ratingsDET 56.9%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastDET 56.3%15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastDET 58.3%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.

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Houston Astros and Detroit Tigers compared, with each team's league rank
HOUStatDET
21st of 304.3Runs scored4.88th of 30
6th of 304.1Runs allowed4.210th of 30
15th of 30+0.2Margin+0.67th of 30
13th of 305–5Last 107–33rd of 30
3rd of 3031–28Road vs home39–249th of 30
25th of 301497Opponent Elo149328th of 30
10th of 301518Elo rating151611th of 30

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

AstrosTigers
1450150015501600league averageAprJulOctJanAprJul

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonHOUDET
Run line59–6560–66
Last 105–53–7
Favorite29–5341–47
Underdog30–1219–19
Overs–unders58–6668–58
Overs–unders, last 107–35–5

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

HOU 9–8 DET in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 17.