Baltimore Orioles at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Gunnar HendersonBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Trevor RogersPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Red Sox- Jarren DuranBatting1-3, 3 RBI
- Dustin MayPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Duran doubled to center, Anthony scored and Lowe scored.6–3
- 9Basallo singled to center, Vázquez scored and Henderson scored.6–1
- 7Duran hit sacrifice fly to center, Bregman scored, Story to third.4–1
- 7Mountcastle singled to center, Henderson scored.4–0
- 7Henderson tripled to right, Holliday scored.3–0
- 4Beavers singled to center, Basallo scored, J. Jackson to second.2–0
- 3Henderson homered to center (414 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 52%
- ML BAL +100 / BOS -120
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.6 pts
- BOS: Elo 53.8%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- BOS -109
- BAL +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 3.7 – 3.8 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1496 | 1528 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +18 | −5 | BAL: Trevor Rogers: team allows 0.92 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BOS: Dustin May: team allows 0.25 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +26 Elo | BOS 53.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 54.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BAL | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 5.04th of 30 |
| 25th of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 4.315th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.5 | Margin | +0.84th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 30 |
| 23rd of 3027–37 | Road vs home | 41–235th of 30 |
| 18th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 150014th of 30 |
| 19th of 301496 | Elo rating | 15287th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BAL |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 62–62 | 67–58 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 20–33 | 31–40 |
| Underdog | 42–29 | 36–18 |
| Overs–unders | 55–69 | 63–62 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BAL 18–15 BOS in their last 33 meetings; the forecast called 20 of 33.