Miami Marlins at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Kyle StowersBatting2-3, 1 RBI
- Sandy AlcantaraPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Red Sox- Trevor StoryBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Lucas GiolitoPitching6.1 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Story singled to right, Anthony scored, Duran to second, Bregman to third.1–2
- 6Bregman doubled to right, Anthony scored.1–1
- 3Stowers doubled to center, Edwards scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 60%
- ML MIA +140 / BOS -165
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.5 pts
- BOS: Elo 61.5%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- BOS -149
- MIA +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 3.8 – 4.7 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1478 | 1528 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −15 | −2 | MIA: Sandy Alcantara: team allows 0.73 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BOS: Lucas Giolito: team allows 0.09 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +81 Elo | BOS 61.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 57.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 57.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIA | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 5.04th of 30 |
| 24th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.316th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.5 | Margin | +0.83rd of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 12th of 3030–32 | Road vs home | 39–224th of 30 |
| 7th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 150113th of 30 |
| 24th of 301478 | Elo rating | 15286th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 68–53 | 66–56 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 5–19 | 30–38 |
| Underdog | 63–34 | 36–18 |
| Overs–unders | 58–63 | 62–60 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 3–3 BOS in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.