Miami Marlins at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Jakob MarseeBatting4-5, 2 HR, 7 RBI
- Eury PerezPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 8 K
Guardians- Gabriel AriasBatting1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Gavin WilliamsPitching3.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 7Ramírez singled to center, Pauley scored and Stowers scored.13–4
- 6Marsee doubled to left, Hicks scored and Ramírez scored.11–4
- 6Hicks hit a ground rule double, Stowers scored, Ramírez to third.9–4
- 6Stowers singled to center, Edwards scored.8–4
- 6Pauley homered to right center (403 feet).7–4
- 5Marsee homered to right (385 feet), Hicks scored.6–4
- 4Arias homered to left (433 feet), Manzardo scored and Kayfus scored.4–4
- 1Kwan homered to right (368 feet).4–1
- 1Marsee homered to right (403 feet), Stowers scored and Lopez scored.4–0
- 1Edwards homered to right (402 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 55%
- ML MIA +115 / CLE -135
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.8 pts
- CLE: Elo 56.0%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- CLE -124
- MIA +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 3.5 – 4.0 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1477 | 1504 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | +4 | MIA: Eury Perez: team allows 0.37 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CLE: Gavin Williams: team allows 0.19 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +42 Elo | CLE 56.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 52.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 52.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIA | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.026th of 30 |
| 24th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.111th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.5 | Margin | −0.219th of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 13th of 3029–31 | Road vs home | 30–2718th of 30 |
| 9th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 149526th of 30 |
| 24th of 301477 | Elo rating | 150416th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 67–52 | 58–60 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 5–19 | 20–34 |
| Underdog | 62–33 | 38–26 |
| Overs–unders | 56–63 | 55–63 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 3–4 CLE in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 7.