Miami Marlins at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Xavier EdwardsBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Ryan GustoPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 8 K
Braves- Michael Harris IIBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Hurston WaldrepPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 7Harris II homered to center (409 feet), Olson scored and Baldwin scored.1–7
- 7Baldwin singled to center, Profar scored, Baldwin to second, Olson to third.1–4
- 6Edwards singled to left, Sanoja scored.1–3
- 3Baldwin singled to center, Allen scored, Olson to second, Profar to third.0–3
- 2White hit sacrifice fly to left, Harris II scored.0–2
- 2Albies grounded out to second, Murphy scored, Harris II to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 55%
- ML MIA +100 / ATL -160
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.7 pts
- ATL: Elo 54.4%, market 55.2%
- Fair odds
- ATL -123
- MIA +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 4.0 – 4.5 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1484 | 1493 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −14 | −9 | MIA: Ryan Gusto: team allows 0.68 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · ATL: Hurston Waldrep: team allows 0.47 more runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +31 Elo | ATL 54.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 56.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 56.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 55.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIA | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.123rd of 30 |
| 24th of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 4.418th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.4 | Margin | −0.322nd of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 30 |
| 6th of 3029–27 | Road vs home | 27–3026th of 30 |
| 10th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 150212th of 30 |
| 24th of 301484 | Elo rating | 149320th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 66–49 | 50–65 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 5–19 | 30–47 |
| Underdog | 61–30 | 20–18 |
| Overs–unders | 55–60 | 54–61 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 12–21 ATL in their last 33 meetings; the forecast called 18 of 33.