Miami Marlins at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Graham PauleyBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Eury PerezPitching5.1 IP, 5 ER, 1 K
Braves- Drake BaldwinBatting3-5, 2 HR, 5 RBI
- Carlos CarrascoPitching5.2 IP, 6 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 8Ornelas scored on Gibson wild pitch.6–8
- 8Ornelas scored on Gibson wild pitch.6–8
- 7Profar scored on error, Ozuna safe at first on throwing error by shortstop Lopez, Ozuna safe at second on error, Baldwin safe at third on error.6–7
- 7Baldwin singled to left, Alvarez Jr. scored, Profar to second.6–6
- 6Baldwin homered to right center (422 feet), Profar scored and Olson scored.6–5
- 4Ramírez singled to right, Edwards scored.6–2
- 2Pauley homered to right (352 feet), Wagaman scored.5–2
- 2Wagaman tripled to center, Lopez scored and Marsee scored.3–2
- 2Marsee singled to left, Hicks scored, Lopez to third.1–2
- 1Ozuna homered to left (404 feet).0–2
- 1Baldwin homered to right center (404 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Marlins 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- MIA 55%
- ML MIA -135 / ATL +115
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.5 pts
- MIA: Elo 48.8%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- MIA -124
- ATL +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 4.0 – 3.5 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1483 | 1494 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +12 | −8 | MIA: Eury Perez: team allows 0.62 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATL: Carlos Carrasco: team allows 0.41 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +8 Elo | ATL 51.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 51.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 51.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIA 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIA | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.123rd of 30 |
| 24th of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 4.418th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.4 | Margin | −0.322nd of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3028–26 | Road vs home | 26–2926th of 30 |
| 9th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 150212th of 30 |
| 24th of 301483 | Elo rating | 149420th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 65–48 | 49–64 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 4–18 | 30–47 |
| Underdog | 61–30 | 19–17 |
| Overs–unders | 54–59 | 53–60 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 11–20 ATL in their last 31 meetings; the forecast called 17 of 31.