Miami Marlins at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Heriberto HernandezBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Edward CabreraPitching8.0 IP, 1 ER, 11 K
Braves- Jurickson ProfarBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Bryce ElderPitching6.0 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 6Profar homered to right (416 feet).5–1
- 5Hernández homered to left (404 feet), Stowers scored.5–0
- 4Johnston singled to right, Marsee scored.3–0
- 4Marsee doubled to left, Hernández scored.2–0
- 3Edwards singled to right, Myers scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Marlins 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIA 54%
- ML MIA -135 / ATL +105
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA 45%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.1 pts
- MIA: Elo 45.0%, market 54.1%
- Fair odds
- MIA -118
- ATL +118 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 4.4 – 4.1 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1482 | 1496 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | +2 | MIA: Edward Cabrera: team allows 0.05 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATL: Bryce Elder: team allows 0.10 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +35 Elo | ATL 55.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 51.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 50.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIA 54.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIA | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.223rd of 30 |
| 24th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.418th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.4 | Margin | −0.221st of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 7th of 3028–27 | Road vs home | 27–2924th of 30 |
| 8th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 150112th of 30 |
| 24th of 301482 | Elo rating | 149620th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 65–49 | 50–64 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 4–19 | 30–47 |
| Underdog | 61–30 | 20–17 |
| Overs–unders | 55–59 | 54–60 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 11–21 ATL in their last 32 meetings; the forecast called 17 of 32.